Technology
The Motorola of 2010
The iPad – yes, this is another blog about the device – launched in the U.S. last Saturday. For the layperson, this isn’t significant, but for the iPerson, this is monumental, but what’s the big deal? Should there be all this fuss over an oversized iPod touch? Do people even need another screen to consume themselves with? Frankly, I’m not too sure myself, but what I do know, is that if anybody can “revolutionize” an entire industry single handedly, Apple is the one to do it. However, will they succeed with turning the general store into the App Store? Will the bookstore be replaced by the iBook Store? Or in a broader sense, will the tablet be the next compulsory digital product – the cell phone of the 2010’s if you will? Well I can’t read a crystal ball, but I can do my best to read the writing on the wall.
First let’s look at the industry as a whole. Currently, the tablet market is estimated at being worth $165.8 million. In contrast, the mobile phone industry is worth approximately $1 trillion – give or take a few billion. Conversely, when the cellphone just started to hit its stride in the 80s, there were only 4 million subscribers. Phones and plans cost a fortune, and critics raved that in the future the cellphone would be synonymous with Rolex watches and fancy cars. Thirty years later we laugh, but what will the tablet industry look like in 2040? Nobody can say with confidence where it will be exactly, but I can say with certainty that the iPad will equivalent to the infamous Motorola cellphone that we ridicule today in vintage films.
However, what makes the iPad such a big deal anyway? Is it just another marketing marvel by Steve Jobs and Apple, or does the product actually deserve all this hype? Personally, I think it’s both. I know Apple has a successful history of hyping even the smallest achievements (last fall they hyped up the iPod nano with a camera), but this time I think they may have something to talk about. Sure, it just looks and acts like a giant iPod touch, but three years ago the iPod touch was just a glorified iPod – now look what it can do; play games, edit presentations, drink beer. Therefore, the hype lies in the potential, not in what you get off the shelf.
What’s better about the iPad though is that you don’t have to wait a few years for developers to come out with your favourite apps – they’re already there! With the first generation iPod touch, there wasn’t much added value from a classic iPod, except you got to be that guy who had one. With the new touch iPods, it’s like having a Mac in your pocket that, oh by the way, plays music. Coming back to the iPad, look at the developments it has generated already – all major publications are scrambling to create an app for it. This could be the lifeline for newspapers, magazines, books, and all the advertising that is associated with it! Maybe it gets my heart pounding because I have a passion for advertising, but if there is a single product that can put a positive spin on the enlightening, yet withering print industry, then I think we should embrace it.
So where does it go from here? Well we started it off on the right foot – 300,000 were sold in the first day alone, which is 30,000 better than the iPhone in 2007. Furthermore, analyists are predicting sales of five million within the first twelve months. If that isn’t enough iPad owners downloaded more than a million apps on the same day. I think it’s safe to say 2010 is the year of the iPad, and quite possibly the beginning of something much larger. I guess we won’t really know until it pops up in a Will Farrell parody of the trends in 2010 titled, A Night at the Library.
It’s hard to predict what will happen, but I believe the iPad is the beginning or a new and friendlier kind of computing. Touch is revolutionary. Use an iPad for a while and the mouse starts to feel disconnected for certain things. We will always need “real” computers for professionals… but touch is the future. It represents the next “computer for the rest of us”… just as the Mac 128K was was the first “computer for the rest of us” in 1984. The iPad is a computer a 2 year old (or my 74 year old dad) can use. The content is the interface, nothing is hidden, and people don’t have to deal with files, folders, save as… etc.
Love the iPad, love Apple. I’ve never even owned a PC and barely know how to use one. But one thing about Apple has been starting to bug me – how controlling they’ve gotten around their app programming. I still believe that it’s in a good cause – delivering a superior and seamless user experience – but in the long run I think it will stifle innovation.
Agreed. The whole app store thing makes me a little queasy too. But there is a strong argument to be made for it as well… basically ensuring that there are no apps out there that can infect of crash your system. Which is great for the average use. Which is pretty much everyone. But ya. It makes me queasy too.
Interesting point. What are your thoughts on the apparent snub by Jobs towards Adobe? Do you think it is wise for Apple to remain incompatible with Flash? Do you think competitors will leverage this shortcoming? Will it be significant, or is HTML5 the way forward?
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